Eyes on Oil 12-12-14

Average Annualized Return Per Closed Trade: 32.3%
Average Return Per Closed Trade: 19.0%
Average Holding Period: 226 days
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Reassessing Market Opportunity 12-05-14

Average Annualized Return Per Closed Trade: 32.3%
Average Return Per Closed Trade: 19.0%
Average Holding Period: 226 days
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How to Profit from the Trough in Oil 12-02-14

The sharp fall in oil prices engineered by Saudi Arabia will likely be fairly short-lived, and indeed it should set the stage for the next major rally in oil. While prices could stay low for another six to nine months or perhaps a little longer, odds look good that within the next 12 to 18 months oil prices will rise much closer to their all-time highs from current levels. Moreover, oil’s drop has shortened the time it will take for commodity prices in general, whose correction began in 2011 with Europe’s recession, to bottom. All this has important implications for the short- and longer-term geopolitical and economic outlook and for U.S. investors.

For the U.S., the lower oil prices are a mixed blessing. On one hand, they will put extra cash in U.S. consumers’ pockets; on the other, the country’s most dynamic industry, energy production, will crumble. For investors, we’ll note that since OPEC first flexed its muscle in the early 1970s, U.S. stock markets have never experienced major declines concurrent with a bear market in oil prices.

The two economies that will benefit the most are Europe—at least over the shorter term—and China. Both are major oil importers, and lower oil prices are a free shot in their economic arm, giving consumers extra cash without the government laying out a penny. But China stands out as the biggest winner by far, with the drop in oil a multifold blessing over the shorter and longer terms alike.

It not only hands Chinese consumers a de facto tax cut; it also gives the yuan more freedom to follow its upward trajectory. This further boosts consumer demand while allowing China to import all the military and other technology it craves. Better times in Europe will also help offset the higher yuan as European consumer spending picks up. As a bonus, China gets to buy oil on the cheap Read more about How to Profit from the Trough in Oil 12-02-14

Oil's Plunge a Mixed Blessing 11-28-14

Average Annualized Return Per Closed Trade: 32.3%
Average Return Per Closed Trade: 19.0%
Average Holding Period: 226 days

Oil ministers from OPEC met yesterday and decided to keep its production level unchanged. Prior to the summit, Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in OPEC, had already signaled that it would wait for the oil market to “stabilize itself eventually.” Read more about Oil's Plunge a Mixed Blessing 11-28-14

An Unexpected Change Sparks Rally 11-21-14

Average Annualized Return Per Closed Trade: 32.3%
Average Return Per Closed Trade: 19.0%
Average Holding Period: 226 days

The stock market opened in a jovial mood today thanks to China’s unexpected move to support growth via lower interest rates. The People’s Bank of China decreased the one-year deposit rate by 0.25 percentage point to 2.75 percent, and cut the one-year lending rate by 0.4 percentage point to 5.6 percent. This is China’s first rate cut in more than two years and occurs amidst the country’s slowest growth in two decades. Read more about An Unexpected Change Sparks Rally 11-21-14

Highlighting Two Buying Opportunities 11-14-14

Average Annualized Return Per Closed Trade: 32.3%
Average Return Per Closed Trade: 19.0%
Average Holding Period: 226 days
Read more about Highlighting Two Buying Opportunities 11-14-14

Soaring High 11-07-14

Average Annualized Return Per Closed Trade: 32.3%
Average Return Per Closed Trade: 19.0%
Average Holding Period: 226 days
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